[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 30 09:37:46 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1034UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Region AR1226 (S21E54) was the source of numerous C and a long 
duration M1.4 class event at 1033UT. This region has a beta-delta 
magnetic configuration and is still growing and is expected to 
continue producing C and M class flares. A CME was observed in 
LASCO and STEREO images from 11UT onwards, possibly associated 
with the M1.4 flare. It is not expected to be geoeffective. New 
regions,1127(S19E69) and 1128(N18E67) were numbered. Solar wind 
speed increased from 650km/s at 00UT to range between 700-800Km/s 
for the remainder of the UT day. Elevated solar wind speed is 
due to the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between 
+7/-10nT over the forcasting period. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated for the next 1-2 days due to the influence 
of the coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate 
for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------

2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 29 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   35443332
      Darwin              21   35433342
      Townsville          20   35433431
      Learmonth           25   45344442
      Canberra            18   34443331
      Hobart              21   34453332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin              48   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            85   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             43                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             40   4366 6224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
31 May    12    Unsettled 
01 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past 
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high latitudes. 
This increase was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled 
to Active for the next 24 hours then gradually decline on 31May-01Jun.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Disturbed to Depressed 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
31 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
01 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Equatorial 
regions. Mild MUF enhancements were observed over the last 24 
hours for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions with depressions 
of up to 20% during local night. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, 
with a gradual return to normal conditions for all regions on 
31May-01Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 511 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    67800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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