[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 29 09:46:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2151UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate. There have been several
C and M-class flares from regions AR1225(N18E46) and AR1226(S19E65)
over the last 24 hours. Region 1226 produced the majority of
the flare activity and was the likely source of a M1.1 class
flare at approximatley 2150 UT. This region is increasing in
size and complexity. Solar wind speed increased from 450km/s
to 600km/s. The IMF Bz mostly varied between -5/+8 nT, staying
southwards (around -12nT) between 06UT and 13UT. The prolonged
southward Bz is due to a coronal hole high speed stream possibly
coupled with the effects of the errupted filament earlier on
25 May. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for
the next few days. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
while the coronal hole effect continues probably for 2 more days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 27 32556213
Darwin 21 32455223
Townsville 23 32555213
Learmonth 25 32456213
Canberra 34 31666212
Hobart 34 31666212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 15 Unsettled to Active
30 May 12 Unsettled
31 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Major Storm
levels over the last 24 hours. Periods of Major Storm levels
for for mid and high latitudes and minor storm levels at low
latitudes were observed between 7-13UT corresponding to the prolonged
Bz of around -12nT. Higher than expected activity was due to
coupled effects of the coronal hole and erupted filament on 25May.
Geomagnetic activity is expected be Usettled to Active for
29May-30May and then gradually decline on 31May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 May 50 near predicted monthly values
31 May 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours.
Depressed MUFs of approx 15% observed during local day for Equatorial
and Northern AUS as well as Souther AUS/NZ regions. Enhanced
MUFs for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local
night. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours - depressed periods for high
to mid latitudes due to increased geomagentic actvitiy. For
30May-31May mostly normal ionospheric support expected as
geomagnetic effects decline and solar activity increases.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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