[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 29 09:46:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    2151UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate. There have been several 
C and M-class flares from regions AR1225(N18E46) and AR1226(S19E65) 
over the last 24 hours. Region 1226 produced the majority of 
the flare activity and was the likely source of a M1.1 class 
flare at approximatley 2150 UT. This region is increasing in 
size and complexity. Solar wind speed increased from 450km/s 
to 600km/s. The IMF Bz mostly varied between -5/+8 nT, staying 
southwards (around -12nT) between 06UT and 13UT. The prolonged 
southward Bz is due to a coronal hole high speed stream possibly 
coupled with the effects of the errupted filament earlier on 
25 May. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for 
the next few days. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
while the coronal hole effect continues probably for 2 more days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   32556213
      Darwin              21   32455223
      Townsville          23   32555213
      Learmonth           25   32456213
      Canberra            34   31666212
      Hobart              34   31666212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            18   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   1222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
30 May    12    Unsettled 
31 May    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Major Storm 
levels over the last 24 hours. Periods of Major Storm levels 
for for mid and high latitudes and minor storm levels at low 
latitudes were observed between 7-13UT corresponding to the prolonged 
Bz of around -12nT. Higher than expected activity was due to 
coupled effects of the coronal hole and erupted filament on 25May. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected be Usettled to Active for 
29May-30May and then gradually decline on 31May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
31 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours. 
Depressed MUFs of approx 15% observed during local day for Equatorial 
and Northern AUS as well as Souther AUS/NZ regions. Enhanced 
MUFs for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local 
night. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 24 hours - depressed periods for high 
to mid latitudes due to increased geomagentic actvitiy. For
30May-31May mostly normal ionospheric support expected as 
geomagnetic effects decline and solar activity increases. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   240000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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