[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 28 09:48:02 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. New region 
1226(S18E74) produced a B and four C-class flares, the largest 
being a C5.6 flare at 1643UT. Solar wind speed increased from 
380Km/s to be 500km/s at the time of this report, due to the 
influence of the co_rotating interaction region. The IMF, Bz 
ranged between +8/-5nT between 00UT-14UT followed by a sustained 
southward period of -6nT to -10nT up until the time of this report. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Low for the next 3 days 
with slight chance of M class flare. Solar wind speed is expected 
to increase over the next 3 days due to an anticiapted coronal 
hole wind stream. A glancing blow from a disappearing filament 
observed on 25 May is possible on 28 May. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   12123343
      Darwin               8   12113332
      Townsville          12   12223343
      Learmonth           10   12223333
      Canberra            10   01123343
      Hobart              10   01123343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2210 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
29 May    12    Unsettled 
30 May    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past 
24 hours with periods of minor storm levels for high lattitudes 
late in the UT day due to the continued influence of the co_rotating 
interaction region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be 
Unsettled to Active for the next 24 hours due to coronal hole 
effects. Possible minor storm periods for high latitudes on 28May 
due to a disappearing filament observed on 25 May. Unsettled 
conditions expected for 29May-30May with possible isolated Active 
periods for high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
29 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Minor depressed periods were observed at low latitudes 
over the previous 24 hours. Slightly enhanced periods observed 
for mid latitudes over the UT day. Depressed MUFs observed for 
high latitudes with disturbed conditions during the latter half 
of the UT day coinciding with increased geomagnetic activity. 
Minor to moderate MUFs depressions may be expected across Aus/NZ 
regions for the next 3 days due to the expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    76400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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