[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 27 09:46:42 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed remained low between 320-400Km/s. The IMF 
Bz ranged between -4/+7nT prior to 1320UT when a step change 
to -6nT occurred with step changes in other solar wind parameters
shortly after. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over
the next 3 days with a small chance of C-flaring activity. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to become mildly disturbed next
3 days due to the recurrent coronal hole. A glancing blow from 
a disapearing filament observed on 25 May is possible on 28 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11101312
      Darwin               6   22211312
      Townsville           5   12102312
      Learmonth            5   11102312
      Canberra             3   11101211
      Hobart               4   11101311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1110 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May    12    Unsettled 
28 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
29 May    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Minor disturbance was observed from 1400UT associated 
with the step change in the IMF Bz. Conditions are expected to 
be unsettled with active periods possible for the next 3 days
due to the coronal hole effects. Possible minor storms periods
on 28 May due a disappearing filament observed on 25 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
28 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
29 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
28 May    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
29 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Minor depressed periods were observed at low latitudes 
over the previous 24 hours. Significant spread F conditions were 
observed at Hobart particalarly between 11-17UT. Minor to moderate 
MUFS depressions may be expected across Aus/NZ regions for the 
next 3 days due to the expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    46300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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