[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 27 09:46:42 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed remained low between 320-400Km/s. The IMF
Bz ranged between -4/+7nT prior to 1320UT when a step change
to -6nT occurred with step changes in other solar wind parameters
shortly after. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over
the next 3 days with a small chance of C-flaring activity.
Solar wind parameters are expected to become mildly disturbed next
3 days due to the recurrent coronal hole. A glancing blow from
a disapearing filament observed on 25 May is possible on 28 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11101312
Darwin 6 22211312
Townsville 5 12102312
Learmonth 5 11102312
Canberra 3 11101211
Hobart 4 11101311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 12 Unsettled
28 May 14 Unsettled to Active
29 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Minor disturbance was observed from 1400UT associated
with the step change in the IMF Bz. Conditions are expected to
be unsettled with active periods possible for the next 3 days
due to the coronal hole effects. Possible minor storms periods
on 28 May due a disappearing filament observed on 25 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
28 May 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
29 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor depressed periods were observed at low latitudes
over the previous 24 hours. Significant spread F conditions were
observed at Hobart particalarly between 11-17UT. Minor to moderate
MUFS depressions may be expected across Aus/NZ regions for the
next 3 days due to the expected rise in geomagnetic activity
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 46300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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