[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 26 09:32:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. New region
1222(N15W24) appeared on the disc. Solar wind parameters were
undisturbed over most of the reporting period. A CME was observed
in LASCO and STEREO images erupting around 2300 UT on 24May and
it is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar activity is expected
to be Low over the next 3 days. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be undisturbed on day one, becoming disturbed day two and
persisting on day three due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 1 12100000
Learmonth 1 11100001
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 7 Quiet
27 May 12 Unsettled
28 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next 24 hours with the
possibility of Unsettled to isolated Active periods late in the
UT day due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods
are expected on the 27-28 May due coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
28 May 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were around predicted monthly values with depressed
periods of up to 20% at low latitudes over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days with
the possibility of minor to mild degradations at mid-high latitudes
on 27-28May due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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