[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 26 09:32:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. New region 
1222(N15W24) appeared on the disc. Solar wind parameters were 
undisturbed over most of the reporting period. A CME was observed 
in LASCO and STEREO images erupting around 2300 UT on 24May and 
it is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low over the next 3 days. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to be undisturbed on day one, becoming disturbed day two and 
persisting on day three due to coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           1   12100000
      Learmonth            1   11100001
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               0   10000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2111 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May     7    Quiet 
27 May    12    Unsettled 
28 May    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next 24 hours with the 
possibility of Unsettled to isolated Active periods late in the 
UT day due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar 
wind stream. Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods 
are expected on the 27-28 May due coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
28 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
28 May    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: MUFs were around predicted monthly values with depressed 
periods of up to 20% at low latitudes over the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days with 
the possibility of minor to mild degradations at mid-high latitudes 
on 27-28May due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    53800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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