[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 25 09:41:11 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed decayed from around 420Km/s to 320Km/s over 
the UT day. Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT for most of the reporting 
period. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the disc. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next 3 days. 
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at normal levels over 
the next 2 days and increase again on 27 May due to an anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112201
      Darwin               5   12112212
      Townsville           3   -1112111
      Learmonth            3   21111201
      Canberra             2   11012100
      Hobart               2   11012200
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1001 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     5    Quiet 
26 May     7    Quiet 
27 May    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet 
over the next 2 days as the solar wind speed remains at its current 
level. Unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are 
expected on the 27th due to the anticipated coronal hole wind 
stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values, depressed periods
      20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values, depressed periods
      20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: MUFs were around predicted monthly values with some 
depressed periods of up to 20% at low latitudes over the last 
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next three 
days with the possibility of minor to mild degradations at high 
latitudes on 27 May due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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