[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 25 09:41:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decayed from around 420Km/s to 320Km/s over
the UT day. Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT for most of the reporting
period. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the disc.
Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next 3 days.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at normal levels over
the next 2 days and increase again on 27 May due to an anticipated
coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11112201
Darwin 5 12112212
Townsville 3 -1112111
Learmonth 3 21111201
Canberra 2 11012100
Hobart 2 11012200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 5 Quiet
26 May 7 Quiet
27 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet
over the next 2 days as the solar wind speed remains at its current
level. Unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected on the 27th due to the anticipated coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values, depressed periods
20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values, depressed periods
20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were around predicted monthly values with some
depressed periods of up to 20% at low latitudes over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next three
days with the possibility of minor to mild degradations at high
latitudes on 27 May due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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