[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 24 09:45:32 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The 
solar wind speed diminished from 480-400 km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated 
between +/- 4nT with southward excursions up to -6 nT towards 
the end of the day. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images 
erupting around 0400 UT. It is not expected to influence the 
earth. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the disc. 
Activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at the current levels 
on days 24-25 May. The recurrent coronal hole high speed stream 
might elevate the wind speed during the later half of the 26 
May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11012111
      Darwin               3   11102111
      Townsville           3   11012111
      Learmonth            3   11112111
      Canberra             1   01002000
      Hobart               2   01012111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2200 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May     5    Quiet 
25 May     5    Quiet 
26 May    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly Quiet on days 2 and 3 (24 -25 May). Unsettled conditions 
with possible Active periods may be expected for 26 May due to 
coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 May    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
25 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
26 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some depressed 
periods of up to 20% at low latitudes. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list