[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 23 09:28:49 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The
solar wind speed ranged between 380-460 km/s and the IMF Bz between
+/-5 nT. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the
disc. Activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days. The solar wind speed is expected to remain around current
mildly elevated levels over the next few days due to a weak coronal
hole wind stream. No major Bz southward excursions are expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21101100
Darwin 3 22101101
Townsville 3 22111101
Learmonth 2 21111100
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 2 21101000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0110 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 7 Quiet
24 May 5 Quiet
25 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid latitudes.
Polar regions were Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods early
in the UT day. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet for the
next 3 days with possible isolated Unsettled periods at mid and
high latitudes on the 23rd.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by up to 30% between 01-13UT,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by up to 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by up to 25% around local nightfall,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
24 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
25 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly around predicted monthly values during
local daytime, with some depressed periods of up to 30% at low
latitudes. Low and mid latitudes experienced depressions around
local nightfall of between 10-30%. Mild depressions are expected
to continue to occur for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 82500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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