[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 23 09:28:49 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The 
solar wind speed ranged between 380-460 km/s and the IMF Bz between 
+/-5 nT. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the 
disc. Activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed is expected to remain around current 
mildly elevated levels over the next few days due to a weak coronal 
hole wind stream. No major Bz southward excursions are expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21101100
      Darwin               3   22101101
      Townsville           3   22111101
      Learmonth            2   21111100
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               2   21101000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0110 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May     7    Quiet 
24 May     5    Quiet 
25 May     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid latitudes. 
Polar regions were Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods early 
in the UT day. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet for the 
next 3 days with possible isolated Unsettled periods at mid and 
high latitudes on the 23rd. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by up to 30% between 01-13UT,
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by up to 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by up to 25% around local nightfall, 
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
24 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
25 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly around predicted monthly values during 
local daytime, with some depressed periods of up to 30% at low 
latitudes. Low and mid latitudes experienced depressions around 
local nightfall of between 10-30%. Mild depressions are expected 
to continue to occur for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    82500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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