[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 22 09:38:16 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The 
solar wind speed ranged between 330-450 km/s and the IMF Bz between 
-5/+7 nT. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the 
disc. Activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed is expected to remain around current 
mildly elevated levels over the next few days. No major Bz southward 
excursions are expected. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01110112
      Darwin               5   13211112
      Townsville           4   12210112
      Learmonth            3   01210122
      Canberra             1   01000012
      Hobart               0   00000011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May     7    Quiet 
23 May     7    Quiet 
24 May     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid latitudes. 
Polar regions were predominantly Quiet to Unsettled. Conditions 
are expected to remain Quiet for the next 3 days with possible 
isolated Unsettled periods at mid and high latitudes on the 22nd 
and 23rd. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 May    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by up to 15% during local day,
      Depressed by up to 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by up to 20% during local day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
23 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
24 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: MUFs were around predicted monthly values with extended 
depressed periods of between 20-30%. These conditions are expected 
to continue over the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    47600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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