[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 22 09:38:16 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The
solar wind speed ranged between 330-450 km/s and the IMF Bz between
-5/+7 nT. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the
disc. Activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days. The solar wind speed is expected to remain around current
mildly elevated levels over the next few days. No major Bz southward
excursions are expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 2 01110112
Darwin 5 13211112
Townsville 4 12210112
Learmonth 3 01210122
Canberra 1 01000012
Hobart 0 00000011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 7 Quiet
23 May 7 Quiet
24 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid latitudes.
Polar regions were predominantly Quiet to Unsettled. Conditions
are expected to remain Quiet for the next 3 days with possible
isolated Unsettled periods at mid and high latitudes on the 22nd
and 23rd.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by up to 15% during local day,
Depressed by up to 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by up to 20% during local day,
Mostly near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
23 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
24 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were around predicted monthly values with extended
depressed periods of between 20-30%. These conditions are expected
to continue over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 47600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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