[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 21 09:31:06 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The 
solar wind speed diminished from 380-340 km/s with the IMF Bz 
fluctuating between +/- 4nT. No large or magnetically complex 
regions are on the disc. Activity is expected to remain Very 
Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed is expected to 
remain at the current slow levels for another day or two. A 
possible glancing blow from the CME observed around 4UT on 
May 19th may elevate the wind speed and density during the later 
half of the 22nd or early on the 23rd. A weak coronal hole is 
expected to mildly elevate the wind speed on the 23rd. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Darwin               1   11011001
      Townsville           1   10101001
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1011 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     5    Quiet 
22 May     7    Quiet 
23 May     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet. Conditions are expected 
to remain Quiet for the next 3 days with possible isolated Unsettled 
periods on the 22nd and 23rd due to a possible glancing blow 
from a CME on the 22nd and a weak coronal hole wind stream arriving 
on the 23rd. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 May    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 10-20% over the UT day. 
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 May    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 May    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUF depressions between 10-20% were observed for extended 
periods across the Australian region. These conditions are expected 
to continue over the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    56200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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