[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 20 09:36:07 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. A 
long duration B3 flare occured at 0350 UT with an associated 
limb CME seen in LASCO and STEREO imagery. The bulk of the ejected 
mass appears to be directed northward, however a glancing blow 
from the edge of this ejection may strike the earth in 3-4 days. 
The solar wind speed returned to quiescent levels of around 380 
km/s as the recent coronal hole high speed stream rotated away. 
All regions on disc have very low flare probabilities. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low over the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at normal levels, 
with possible increase in speed late on the 22nd due to the CME. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Darwin               2   11211001
      Townsville           1   11111000
      Learmonth            2   12111000
      Canberra             1   01110000
      Hobart               2   11111100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2211 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May     5    Quiet 
21 May     5    Quiet 
22 May     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid latitudes 
and Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes. 
Conditions are expected to be Quiet for the next three days with 
possible mildly disturbed conditions late on the 22nd. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
21 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by up to 20% between 03-15UT, 
      Near predicted monthly values at other times. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by up to 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    35    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
21 May    40    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
22 May    40    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during local 
daytime, with some depressed periods. MUF depressions of up to 
20% were seen during local night across a range of stations. 
Daytime depressions are possible over the next few days as 
MUFs are trending down. Nightime depressions are expected for 
the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    83800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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