[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 19 09:31:48 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous day. New region 
1218(S16E66) produced a C1 X-ray flare and region 1208(N09W90) 
produced a C2 event. The solar wind speed reduced from around 
550 km/s to around 420 km/s over the day with the IMF Bz close 
to 0nT all day. Solar activity is expected to remain Low over 
the next few days with no regions on disc having a high flare 
probability. The solar wind speed is expected to return to quiescent 
levels during the next 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Townsville           4   22112111
      Learmonth            7   2-------
      Canberra             1   11101100
      Hobart               1   11101100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2233 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May     5    Quiet 
20 May     5    Quiet 
21 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid lattitudes 
and Unsettled with isolated Active periods in polar regions. 
The recent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream largely 
abated over the day. Conditions are expected to be Quiet for 
the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
20 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
21 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed. Some MUF 
depressions were observed at low latitudes for several hours 
after local nightfall. Daytime propagation conditions are expected 
to be good for the next 3 days, with nightime depressed periods 
possible. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 565 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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