[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 18 09:41:15 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar acitivty was Very Low over the previous day with 
no significant X-ray flares. All regions currently on disc are 
decaying or stable. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 
520-600 km/s trending downwards in the later half of the previous 
24 hours. The IMF Bz fluctated between +/- 5nT with the fluctuation 
envelope reducing towards the end of the day. Activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next few days, with some chance of 
minor C-class flares. No significant active regions are due to 
rotate onto the disc. The solar wind speed is expected to continue 
to diminish back to quiescent levels over the next day or two. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21232212
      Darwin               8   22232222
      Townsville           7   21232212
      Learmonth            7   21232222
      Canberra             7   11332212
      Hobart               8   11333212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            62   (Active)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              93   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2233 4323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May     7    Quiet 
19 May     5    Quiet 
20 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with 
some Active to Storm periods at high lattitudes. This 
activity was due to the high speed coronal hole solar wind
stream which is expected to decline over the next day or two.
Conditions are expected to be Quiet for the next 3 days, with 
some chance of isolated Unsettled periods at mid and high 
lattitudes for the next day only. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 May    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by up to 30% after 12UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15%. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
19 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
20 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed. Some MUF 
depressions were observed at low and mid lattitudes, particularly 
during local night. Conditions are expected to be mostly good 
for the next few days, with some depressed periods possible for 
low and mid lattitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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