[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 18 09:41:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar acitivty was Very Low over the previous day with
no significant X-ray flares. All regions currently on disc are
decaying or stable. The solar wind speed fluctuated between
520-600 km/s trending downwards in the later half of the previous
24 hours. The IMF Bz fluctated between +/- 5nT with the fluctuation
envelope reducing towards the end of the day. Activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next few days, with some chance of
minor C-class flares. No significant active regions are due to
rotate onto the disc. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to diminish back to quiescent levels over the next day or two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 7 21232212
Darwin 8 22232222
Townsville 7 21232212
Learmonth 7 21232222
Canberra 7 11332212
Hobart 8 11333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 62 (Active)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 93 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2233 4323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 7 Quiet
19 May 5 Quiet
20 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with
some Active to Storm periods at high lattitudes. This
activity was due to the high speed coronal hole solar wind
stream which is expected to decline over the next day or two.
Conditions are expected to be Quiet for the next 3 days, with
some chance of isolated Unsettled periods at mid and high
lattitudes for the next day only.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by up to 30% after 12UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 45 near predicted monthly values
19 May 45 near predicted monthly values
20 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed. Some MUF
depressions were observed at low and mid lattitudes, particularly
during local night. Conditions are expected to be mostly good
for the next few days, with some depressed periods possible for
low and mid lattitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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