[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 17 09:32:41 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the previous day with only 
B class X-ray flares. Region 1214(S25W11) is growing, however 
it remains relatively small and magnetically simple. Region
1208(N08W64) has produced C-class flares and may continue to 
do so over the next few days. Acitivty is expected to remain 
Low for the next few days. The solar-wind speed ranged between 
400-600 Km/s over the day with some IMF Bz southward excursions 
of up to -8nT. The wind speed is expected to remain elevated for 
at least another 24 hours before gradually declining over the 
subsequent day. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22333122
      Darwin              10   22333222
      Townsville           9   22333122
      Learmonth           10   22333222
      Canberra             9   21333122
      Hobart              10   21334122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            62   (Active)
      Canberra            63   (Active)
      Hobart              83   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2112 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 May     7    Quiet 
19 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with 
some isolated Active periods at high lattitudes. This activity 
was due to the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream which 
is expected to persist for the next 24 hours before declining 
over the subsequent day, when conditions are expected to return 
to Quiet. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the 
previous day, with some isolated mild MUF depressions at low 
and mid lattitudes. These conditions are expected to continue 
for the next day, and subsequent days are expected to be 
consistantly Good. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 May    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressions of up to 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
18 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
19 May    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed. Some MUF 
depressions of up to 20% were observed at low and mid lattitudes,
particularly during local night. Stations where these were 
most pronounced were Cocos Island and Darwin, with some more 
mild depressions seen at Learmonth. Similar isolated depressions 
may occur during the next 24 hours after which consistantly Good 
conditions are expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   189000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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