[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 16 09:26:36 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
several B-class events and a single C1 event from region 1208(N11W50).
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days, 
with the possibility of isolated C-class events. Solar wind speed 
increased from 330km/s to 550km/s due to coronal hole effects. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-8nT. The solar wind 
speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days and 
gradually decline on 18 May. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
15/0420UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22132221
      Darwin               7   22132222
      Townsville           7   22232221
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Canberra             4   11121221
      Hobart               5   12121221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 May     8    Mostly Quiet, with isolated Unsettled periods. 
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for 
the next 2 days due to coronal hole effects, with a return to 
mostly Quiet conditions on 18 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May    48    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
17 May    48    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
18 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days with 
the possibility of periods of minor to mild degradations at high 
and some mid latitude locations due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. A return to 
near-normal conditions is expected on 18 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    20800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list