[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 16 09:26:36 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
several B-class events and a single C1 event from region 1208(N11W50).
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days, 
with the possibility of isolated C-class events. Solar wind speed 
increased from 330km/s to 550km/s due to coronal hole effects. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-8nT. The solar wind 
speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days and 
gradually decline on 18 May. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
15/0420UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22132221
      Darwin               7   22132222
      Townsville           7   22232221
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Canberra             4   11121221
      Hobart               5   12121221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 May     8    Mostly Quiet, with isolated Unsettled periods. 
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for 
the next 2 days due to coronal hole effects, with a return to 
mostly Quiet conditions on 18 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May    48    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
17 May    48    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
18 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days with 
the possibility of periods of minor to mild degradations at high 
and some mid latitude locations due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. A return to 
near-normal conditions is expected on 18 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    20800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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