[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 15 09:35:39 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed varied mostly between 300-340 km/s showing 
a gradual increase in the late hours of the UT day. The Bz 
component of IMF varied between +/- 5 nT, staying mostly 
close to the normal value. The effect of a coronal hole may 
strengthen the solar wind stream for the next three days. 
Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low levels for the 
next 3 days. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1195 is 
due for return to the south-east limb around 15 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000101
      Darwin               2   21000102
      Townsville           1   1100011-
      Learmonth            1   10000201
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May    10    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods 
                possible. 
16 May    10    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods 
                possible. 
17 May    10    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with the possibility of 
isolated Active periods may be expected for the next three days 
due to the possible effect of a coronal hole during this period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions with some possibility of minor to mild 
degradations at high and some mid latitude locations may be expected 
for the next 3 days due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    45    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
16 May    45    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
17 May    45    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days with 
the possibility of periods of minor to mild degradations at high 
and some mid latitude locations due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    48800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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