[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 31 09:43:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. C-class
flares were observed from regions 1224(N20W52), 1226(S21E43)
and 1227(S19E56), the largest being a C7 event from region 1226.
Further C-class events are likely over the next few days, with
the chance of isolated M-class events. Solar wind speed declined
gradually from ~700km/s to ~550km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/-4nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decline further over
the next 1-2 days before increasing again on 2 Jun due to possible
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22233112
Darwin 8 32232122
Townsville 8 22233112
Learmonth 7 22232122
Canberra 7 21133112
Hobart 8 21143111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 32 4654 3543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 15 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with some Active periods
at higher latitudes.
01 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained Quiet to Active over the
past 24 hours with Storm periods at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to decline over the next two days, with increased
activity again on 2 Jun due to possible coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 40 near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 709 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 511000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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