[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 31 09:43:33 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 May             01 Jun             02 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. C-class 
flares were observed from regions 1224(N20W52), 1226(S21E43) 
and 1227(S19E56), the largest being a C7 event from region 1226. 
Further C-class events are likely over the next few days, with 
the chance of isolated M-class events. Solar wind speed declined 
gradually from ~700km/s to ~550km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated between 
+/-4nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decline further over 
the next 1-2 days before increasing again on 2 Jun due to possible 
coronal hole effects. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233112
      Darwin               8   32232122
      Townsville           8   22233112
      Learmonth            7   22232122
      Canberra             7   21133112
      Hobart               8   21143111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             32   4654 3543     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 May    15    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with some Active periods 
                at higher latitudes. 
01 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained Quiet to Active over the 
past 24 hours with Storm periods at high latitudes. Activity 
is expected to decline over the next two days, with increased 
activity again on 2 Jun due to possible coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 May    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 May    40    near predicted monthly values 
01 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 
02 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 709 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   511000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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