[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 12 09:35:22 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain so over the next 3 days, with possible 
isolated C-class activity. A CME was observed in the NW quadrant 
at 0245UT. Solar wind speed varied from ~400km/s to ~350km/s. 
A possible glancing blow from the above-mentioned CME could increase 
the solar wind speed and density from late on 13 May or early 
on 14 May. A narrow elongated coronal hole in the SW might also 
contribute to enhanced wind speed. A newly formed equatorial 
coronal hole is also expected to raise Vsw from 14 May. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111110
      Darwin               4   22211111
      Townsville           3   12111110
      Learmonth            3   12111110
      Canberra             2   12001100
      Hobart               3   12112100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1122 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 
13 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
14 May     8    Mostly Quiet with the possibility of Unsettled 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 
3 days, due to possible effects of coronal hole high speed streams. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
13 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
14 May    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs are expected over the next 3 days, 
with isolated depressions in southern regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    53800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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