[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 11 09:33:09 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain Very Low to Low over the next 3 days with 
possible isolated C-class activity. The solar wind speed increased 
from 330 to 400km/s. Bz mostly fluctuated between +/- 6nT. Solar 
wind speed is expected to increase gradually over the next 2 
days due to mild effects from a recurrent coronal hole. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   11323322
      Darwin               9   21323322
      Townsville           9   2132332-
      Learmonth            8   11223322
      Canberra             7   00322322
      Hobart               8   11322322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May    12    Unsettled 
12 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
13 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Unsettled over the last 24 
hours. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 
day, with isolated Active periods possible on 12 May due to coronal 
hole effects, abating on 13 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
12 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 May    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 45%
      during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
12 May    60    near predicted monthly values 
13 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs are expected over the next 3 days, 
with isolated depressions in southern regions, especially on 
May 12. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 311 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    27500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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