[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 11 09:33:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain Very Low to Low over the next 3 days with
possible isolated C-class activity. The solar wind speed increased
from 330 to 400km/s. Bz mostly fluctuated between +/- 6nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to increase gradually over the next 2
days due to mild effects from a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 9 11323322
Darwin 9 21323322
Townsville 9 2132332-
Learmonth 8 11223322
Canberra 7 00322322
Hobart 8 11322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 12 Unsettled
12 May 15 Unsettled to Active
13 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Unsettled over the last 24
hours. These conditions are expected to continue for the next
day, with isolated Active periods possible on 12 May due to coronal
hole effects, abating on 13 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 45%
during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 55 near predicted monthly values
12 May 60 near predicted monthly values
13 May 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs are expected over the next 3 days,
with isolated depressions in southern regions, especially on
May 12.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 27500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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