[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 10 09:33:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity increased slightly over the last 24 hours. 
New region 1210(N20E08) produced two C1 flares. A C5 flare occurred 
at 21UT, associated with a CME from beyond the northeast limb. 
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Further C-class 
activity is expected over the next 3 days with the chance of 
an isolated M-class event. The solar wind speed increased slightly 
to ~330km/s. Bz fluctuated between +/- 4nT. Solar wind speed 
is expected to increase gradually over the next 2 to 3 days due 
to mild effects from a recurrent coronal hole. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100100
      Darwin               3   211-1101
      Townsville           2   11101101
      Learmonth            1   10100100
      Canberra             0   01000100
      Hobart               1   11000100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   1000 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May     5    Quiet 
11 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 May    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to increase gradually 
to Unsettled levels of the next 2 to 3 days to to mild recurrent 
coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 May    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May    55    Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% enhanced. 
11 May    55    Near predicted monthly values to 10% enhanced. 
12 May    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild MUF enhancements were observed over the last 24 
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next 
day, with a gradual return to normal conditions during days 2 
to 3 due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 300 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    13200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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