[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 13 09:26:43 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a 
single C2 flare from a spotless region in the NE. Activity is 
expected to be Very Low to Low over the next 3 days. Solar wind 
speed varied  between ~320-380km/s. A possible glancing blow 
from a CME observed on 11 May could increase the solar wind speed 
and density from late on 13 May or early on 14 May. A narrow 
equatorial coronal hole is expected to raise solar wind speed 
from 14 May. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           0   10000---
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   10000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1310 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     5    Quiet 
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 13 May, Quiet to 
Unsettled conditions on 14-15 May due to possible CME and coronal 
hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
14 May    48    Near predicted monthly values 
15 May    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs are expected over the next 3 days, 
with isolated depressions in southern regions, more likely on 
14-15 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    51100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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