[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 13 09:26:43 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
single C2 flare from a spotless region in the NE. Activity is
expected to be Very Low to Low over the next 3 days. Solar wind
speed varied between ~320-380km/s. A possible glancing blow
from a CME observed on 11 May could increase the solar wind speed
and density from late on 13 May or early on 14 May. A narrow
equatorial coronal hole is expected to raise solar wind speed
from 14 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 0 10000---
Learmonth 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1310 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 5 Quiet
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 13 May, Quiet to
Unsettled conditions on 14-15 May due to possible CME and coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 50 near predicted monthly values
14 May 48 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs are expected over the next 3 days,
with isolated depressions in southern regions, more likely on
14-15 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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