[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 7 09:31:50 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were undisturbed over the reporting
period. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images erupting
from the north-east limb around 0909 UT, it is not expected to
be geo-effective. Solar wind parameters are expected to be
undisturbed on days one and two, becoming slightly disturbed day
three due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 3 22111101
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 1 11110100
Canberra 1 01010001
Hobart 0 01010000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3321 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 7 Quiet
08 May 7 Quiet
09 May 12 Quiet to unsettled. Possibility of isolated active
periods at higher latitudes.
COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods possible days one and two
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
00, 03-10 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancments to 25% 00,
03-07 UT and depressions to 25% 11-16 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
enahancements to 25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enahanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
08 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
09 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: Occasional degraded night time propagation conditions
may have been experienced at all latitudes due to spread F.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 59400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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