[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 7 09:31:50 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 102/50

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were undisturbed over the reporting 
period. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images erupting 
from the north-east limb around 0909 UT, it is not expected to 
be geo-effective. Solar wind parameters are expected to be
undisturbed on days one and two, becoming slightly disturbed day
three due to coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Darwin               3   22111101
      Townsville           1   11110001
      Learmonth            1   11110100
      Canberra             1   01010001
      Hobart               0   01010000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3321 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May     7    Quiet 
08 May     7    Quiet 
09 May    12    Quiet to unsettled. Possibility of isolated active 
                periods at higher latitudes. 

COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods possible days one and two 
at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      00, 03-10 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancments to 25% 00,
      03-07 UT and depressions to 25% 11-16 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      enahancements to 25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enahanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May    60    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
08 May    60    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
09 May    60    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Occasional degraded night time propagation conditions 
may have been experienced at all latitudes due to spread F. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    59400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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