[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 8 09:29:24 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 102/50

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were undisturbed over the reporting 
period. Solar wind parameters are expected to be undisturbed 
on day one, becoming slightly disturbed later day two, persisting 
on day three due to coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11002321
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           5   11002322
      Learmonth            4   11002321
      Canberra             4   01002321
      Hobart               4   11002311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0111 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     5    Quiet 
09 May    12    Quiet to unsettled. Possibility of isolated active 
                periods at higher latitudes. 
10 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 May    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      13-17 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 35%
      12-16 UT at Darwin and to 20% 13-16 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      13-20 UT at Hobart and enhancements to 35% 13-23 UT at
      Perth and 19-22 UT at Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May    55    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
09 May    55    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
10 May    55    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    51700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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