[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 6 09:33:13 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar wind speed showed further gradual decay from 440km/s 
to 380Km/s over the forcasting period. The IMF Bz mostly varied 
between +/- 4nT. A new region 1207(N24E40) was numbered. All 
the active regions were stable. Solar activity is expected to 
be very low with a moderate chance of C-class flares. Solar wind 
speed is expected to remain low over the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212121
      Darwin               6   22212122
      Townsville           4   22112110
      Learmonth            5   22212120
      Canberra             5   12212121
      Hobart               4   22212120
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2121 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May     7    Quiet 
07 May     7    Quiet 
08 May     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods are possible over the forecast 
period at high latitudes locations. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal conditions with some minor depressed periods 
were observed over the previous day. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    60    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
07 May    60    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
08 May    60    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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