[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 5 09:31:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   107/57             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: The solar wind speed decayed from 580Km/s to 450Km/s 
over the day. The IMF Bz mostly varied between +/- 4nT. SDO images 
show a filament erupting at 1659UT in the vicinity of region 
1205(N14E23). STEREO B images show an associated CME with this 
event. Solar activity is expected to be very low with a moderate 
chance of C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to remain 
low over the next 3 days, however some minor effects from CMEs 
and coronal hole may slightly disturb the solar wind parameters. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21211311
      Darwin               5   21211311
      Townsville           5   21211311
      Learmonth            6   21211410
      Canberra             3   11------
      Hobart               6   22221310
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra           138   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   4422 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May     7    Quiet 
06 May     7    Quiet 
07 May     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Some unsettled periods are possible over the forecast 
period due to the effects of the CMEs and coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some minor depressed periods were observed at high latitudes 
over the previous day. Mostly normal conditions were observed 
elsewhere. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 May    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15%.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
06 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
07 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of MUFs enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected for the next 3 days with a possibility of minor degradations 
on high latitudes locations. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 606 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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