[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 5 09:31:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   107/57             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: The solar wind speed decayed from 580Km/s to 450Km/s 
over the day. The IMF Bz mostly varied between +/- 4nT. SDO images 
show a filament erupting at 1659UT in the vicinity of region 
1205(N14E23). STEREO B images show an associated CME with this 
event. Solar activity is expected to be very low with a moderate 
chance of C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to remain 
low over the next 3 days, however some minor effects from CMEs 
and coronal hole may slightly disturb the solar wind parameters. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21211311
      Darwin               5   21211311
      Townsville           5   21211311
      Learmonth            6   21211410
      Canberra             3   11------
      Hobart               6   22221310
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra           138   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   4422 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May     7    Quiet 
06 May     7    Quiet 
07 May     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Some unsettled periods are possible over the forecast 
period due to the effects of the CMEs and coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some minor depressed periods were observed at high latitudes 
over the previous day. Mostly normal conditions were observed 
elsewhere. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 May    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15%.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
06 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
07 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of MUFs enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected for the next 3 days with a possibility of minor degradations 
on high latitudes locations. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 606 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list