[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 4 09:33:15 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Region 1204(N17E26) produced a C1.3 flare at 1052 UT. 
SDO images show a filament erupting from north-west quadrant 
at around 1400UT.The solar wind speed gradually decayed from 
around 680 km/s to under 560 km/s as the coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects decreased. The IMF Bz fluctuated between 
+/- 4 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decrease, 
however some minor effects from CMEs observed earlier may cause 
some disturbance to solar wind parameters. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33232222
      Darwin               9   33222222
      Townsville           8   23232221
      Learmonth           11   33232232
      Canberra             8   23232221
      Hobart              12   43233222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            53   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20   3543 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 May     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Some unsettled periods are expected at high latitudes 
on day 3. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 May    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 65% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
05 May    65    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
06 May    70    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 676 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   191000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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