[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 3 09:36:06 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1199 produced a C class flare at 1405UT as it
went over the west limb. Two new as yet unnumbered regions emerged
in the northern hemisphere. Solar wind speed remained elevated
fluctuating between 620 km/s and 700 Km/s over the reporting
period due to recurrent coronal hole effects. The IMF Bz component
stayed around -5nT between 00-05UT then decreased in magnitude
to fluctuate between -/+4nT for the rest of the UT day. SDO images
show a filament lifting off the the south-east quadrant at 1411UT
which may be related the CME observed in Lasco and Stereo images
around 1800UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
for the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 12 23432322
Darwin 11 23332322
Townsville 12 23432231
Learmonth 13 22343332
Canberra 12 23432322
Hobart 15 23443322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 3333 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 13 Unsettled to Active
04 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high latitudes.
Geomagnetic avtivity is expected to be unsettled to active on
3 May. Isolated active periods at higher latitudes likely for
the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some minor depressed periods were observed at high latitudes
over the previous day. Mostly normal conditions were observed
elsewhere. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced to 40% 00-07 UT. No data 08-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced to 30% during local day. Enhanced to 25%
during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night. Depressions
to 20% observed at Hobart and Learmonth during local
night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 65 near predicted monthly values
04 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 627 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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