[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 3 09:36:06 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 110/60

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Region 1199 produced a C class flare at 1405UT as it 
went over the west limb. Two new as yet unnumbered regions emerged 
in the northern hemisphere. Solar wind speed remained elevated 
fluctuating between 620 km/s and 700 Km/s over the reporting 
period due to recurrent coronal hole effects. The IMF Bz component 
stayed around -5nT between 00-05UT then decreased in magnitude 
to fluctuate between -/+4nT for the rest of the UT day. SDO images 
show a filament lifting off the the south-east quadrant at 1411UT 
which may be related the CME observed in Lasco and Stereo images 
around 1800UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
for the next 2 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23432322
      Darwin              11   23332322
      Townsville          12   23432231
      Learmonth           13   22343332
      Canberra            12   23432322
      Hobart              15   23443322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             19   3333 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
04 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 May     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past 
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high latitudes. 
Geomagnetic avtivity is expected to be unsettled to active on 
3 May. Isolated active periods at higher latitudes likely for 
the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some minor depressed periods were observed at high latitudes 
over the previous day. Mostly normal conditions were observed 
elsewhere. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 May    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced to 40% 00-07 UT. No data 08-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced to 30% during local day. Enhanced to 25%
      during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night. Depressions
      to 20% observed at Hobart and Learmonth during local
      night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    65    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    70    Near predicted monthly values 
05 May    70    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 627 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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