[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 2 09:43:26 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1195 produced a C1 flare before rotating off the disc. Solar 
wind speed remained elevated, fluctuating between 600-700km/s, 
as a result of a recurrent coronal hole. The north-south component 
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar wind 
speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days due 
to the influence of a group of equatorial positioned coronal 
holes. Solar activity is expected to remain Low for the next 
3 days with further C class events expected. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33344322
      Darwin              15   33334323
      Townsville          17   43344322
      Learmonth           18   33334522
      Canberra            16   33344322
      Hobart              19   43444322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin              42   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             24   4335 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
03 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
04 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past 
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high-mid latitudes. 
This increase was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled 
to Active for the next 2 days and Unsettled on 4 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  48

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    70    near predicted monthly values 
03 May    60    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhancement MUFs for all AUS/NZ regions except Antarctica. 
MUFs expected to be near monthly averages for low-mid latitudes. 
Possible disturbed periods for high latitudes due to increased 
geomagnetic activity for 02May-03May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 648 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   378000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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