[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 1 09:39:22 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1195 and 1199 were the source of numerous C-class events, the
highest being C3.2 at 1151UT for region 1195. Solar wind speed
increased from 500km/s at 00UT to be approx 700km/s at the time
of this report. Elevated solar wind velocity is due to the high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. The
north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-13nT over
00UT-02UT and then decreased in magnitude to fluctuate between
+/-5nT for the rest of the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated for the next 2-3 days due to the influence of a
group of equatorial positioned coronal holes. Solar activity is
expected to remain Low for the next 3 days with slight chance of
M class flare.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
30/0645UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 15 33343233
Darwin 15 33333333
Townsville 13 33333232
Learmonth 17 32353233
Hobart 15 33343233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 48 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 1311 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 14 Unsettled to Active
02 May 14 Unsettled to Active
03 May 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high latitudes.
This increase was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled
to Active for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 60 near predicted monthly values
02 May 55 near predicted monthly values
03 May 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs ranging from 15-35% observed for Northern
AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours.
Mostly normal ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. MUFs
expected to be near monthly values for low latitudes over the
next 3 days. Possible depressed periods for mid latitudes and
disturbed periods for high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic
activity for 01May-03May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 65900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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