[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 1 09:39:22 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1195 and 1199 were the source of numerous C-class events, the 
highest being C3.2 at 1151UT for region 1195. Solar wind speed 
increased from 500km/s at 00UT to be approx 700km/s at the time 
of this report. Elevated solar wind velocity is due to the high 
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. The 
north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-13nT over 
00UT-02UT and then decreased in magnitude to fluctuate between
+/-5nT for the rest of the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated for the next 2-3 days due to the influence of a 
group of equatorial positioned coronal holes. Solar activity is
expected to remain Low for the next 3 days with slight chance of
M class flare. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
30/0645UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33343233
      Darwin              15   33333333
      Townsville          13   33333232
      Learmonth           17   32353233
      Hobart              15   33343233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin              48   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara            NA
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   1311 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
02 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
03 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the past 
24 hours with periods of Minor Storm levels for high latitudes. 
This increase was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled 
to Active for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Apr    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    60    near predicted monthly values 
02 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
03 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs ranging from 15-35% observed for Northern 
AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly normal ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. MUFs 
expected to be near monthly values for low latitudes over the 
next 3 days. Possible depressed periods for mid latitudes and 
disturbed periods for high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic 
activity for 01May-03May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    65900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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