[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 30 10:41:25 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84
COMMENT: AR1183(N15E39) grew significantly during the reporting 
period. It produced a C1 event at 0515UT. AR1176(S16W24) remained 
stable. ACE solar wind parameters became disturbed at ~15UT, 
due to CME effects. A sudden impulse at this time raised Vsw 
to ~400km/s and Bz to ~5nT. Vsw has since fallen to ~380km/s 
and Bz has fluctuated between +/-10nT for the last 2 hours. M-class 
flare activity is possible from AR1176 and AR1183 over the next 
few days. Previous region 1169 is rotating onto the disc and 
might produce flare activity. A coronol hole in the NW quadrant 
is expected to be geo-effective on days 1 and 2. The CME observed 
on 25Mar is expected to arrive on day 2. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010201
      Darwin               4   21111212
      Townsville           4   121-----
      Learmonth            3   10000302
      Canberra             0   00000200
      Hobart               1   00010201
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Weak coronal hole effects are expected to cause Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions on days 1 and 2. Isolated active conditions 
may occur, particularly on day 2 due to a possible glancing strike 
from a weak CME. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced to 50% from 05-22UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% from 08-11UT.
      Enhanced by 20% from 17-18UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 40% from 07-21UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced to 70% during the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    70    Enhanced at times by up to 60%. 
31 Mar    60    Enhanced at times by up to 40%. 
01 Apr    50    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    38700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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