[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 29 10:32:58 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: AR1176 produced a C1.4 flare at 1130UT. AR1176(S17W11)
reduced in size while maintaining complexity. M-class flare activity
is possible from AR1176 and AR1183(N15E54) over the next few
days. The solar wind speed remained low and decreased from around
360km/s to around 330km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-
4nT. SOHO images show a CME from the NE limb at around 1800UT.
STEREO B images suggest this is a backside event and is not expected
to be geoeffectieve. A small coronal hole to the north will be
in a geoeffective position within a day which is expected to
mildly increase solar wind speed. There is a small chance of
a glancing blow from a CME produced on the 25th of March occuring
on the 31st of March.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1166 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 29 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11002011
Darwin 5 22112112
Learmonth 1 10002000
Canberra 0 00002000
Hobart 1 00002010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 4 Quiet
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Weak coronal hole effects are expected to cause Quiet
to Unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3. Isolated active conditions
may occur, particularly on day 3 due to a possible glancing strike
from a weak CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced between 05-16UT by 50%,
Near monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% before 12UT,
Near monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% between 10-19UT,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 70 about 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 60 about 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 28200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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