[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 29 10:32:58 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: AR1176 produced a C1.4 flare at 1130UT. AR1176(S17W11) 
reduced in size while maintaining complexity. M-class flare activity 
is possible from AR1176 and AR1183(N15E54) over the next few 
days. The solar wind speed remained low and decreased from around 
360km/s to around 330km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/- 
4nT. SOHO images show a CME from the NE limb at around 1800UT. 
STEREO B images suggest this is a backside event and is not expected 
to be geoeffectieve. A small coronal hole to the north will be 
in a geoeffective position within a day which is expected to 
mildly increase solar wind speed. There is a small chance of 
a glancing blow from a CME produced on the 25th of March occuring 
on the 31st of March. 


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1166 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 29 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11002011
      Darwin               5   22112112
      Learmonth            1   10002000
      Canberra             0   00002000
      Hobart               1   00002010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     4    Quiet 
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Weak coronal hole effects are expected to cause Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3. Isolated active conditions 
may occur, particularly on day 3 due to a possible glancing strike 
from a weak CME. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced between 05-16UT by 50%,
      Near monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% before 12UT, 
      Near monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% between 10-19UT,
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    70    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Mar    60    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    28200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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