[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 28 10:31:58 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1176(S16E05) produced a C3.1 event at 0014UT and minor B class 
activity. New regions appearing were 1182(N13E03) and 1183(N26E68). 
Flare activity is likely from AR1176 and AR1183. The solar wind speed 
decreased and at the time of this report was ~360km/s. The IMF 
Bz was northward for most of the day before fluctuating between 
+/-4nT from 15UT onwards. Solar activity is expected to be Low 
to Moderate over the next 3 days with some possibility of M-flare 
activity. 


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1166 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 29 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11000012
      Darwin               5   22111122
      Learmonth            0   20000000
      Canberra             1   10000002
      Hobart               1   00000012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar     4    Quiet 
29 Mar     4    Quiet 
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet for 
the next 2 days, with possible Unsettled conditions for 30Mar 
due to coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    60    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    60    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Mar    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with enhanced MUFs 
of ~20% observed for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern Aus/NZ 
regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    56100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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