[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 27 10:47:41 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 25/2322UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 115/66

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1176(S16E16) produced an M1 flare at 2322UT/25 March 
alongwith Type II and Type IV radio bursts. This region also 
produced a C1 flare that peaked at 0058 UT. A partial halo 
CME was observed near the north-east limb around 0612 UT. 
This CME does not seem to be having any earthward component. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 420 km/s to 360 
km/s during the UT day today and the IMF Bz varied between 
+/-4nT for most of the time staying positive for relatively 
longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected to be 
Low over the next 3 days with some possibility of M-class 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           5   12------
      Learmonth            1   20000001
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar     4    Quiet 
28 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions may be expected 
on 27 and 29 March. Geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled 
levels with some possibility of isolated active periods on 28 
March due to the expected arrival of the CME that was observed 
on 24 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in most 
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility 
of minor degradations on high latitudes on the second day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Mar    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    62    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20% 
28 Mar    58    near predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20% 
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with periods of 
enhancements in MUFs in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected in this 
region on 27 and 29 March. MUFs are expected to remain close 
to the predicted monthly values on 28 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    73300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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