[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 26 10:45:05 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Region 1176(S16E30) 
produced two C1 flares and a few B-class flares. This region 
grew both in spot counts and area of white light coverage over 
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged between 420-480km/s 
during the UT day and the IMF Bz varied between +/-5nT for most 
of the time staying positive for relatively longer periods 
of time. Solar activity is expected to be Low  over the next 
3 days with some possibility of M-flare from region 1176. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112111
      Darwin               5   22112112
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            2   21012001
      Canberra             2   10112101
      Hobart               2   11112100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1011 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar     6    Quiet 
27 Mar     6    Quiet 
28 Mar     8    Quiet with some possibility of unsttled periods. 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions may be expected 
for the next three days with some possibility of unsettled
peiods on the third day due to a CME activity observed on 24 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in most 
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility 
of minor degradations on high latitudes on the third day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20% 
27 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20% 
28 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20% 
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with some enhancements 
in MUFs in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected in this region for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 461 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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