[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 25 10:47:06 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1207UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low to Moderate over the last 24 
hours with an M1.0 class event at 1207UT from AR1176 which also 
produced numerous C and B class events over the UT day. AR1176 
has decreased in area and experienced a slight increase in magnetic 
complexity. The solar wind speed ranged between 440-480km/s during 
the UT day with this decrease due to reduced coronal hole influence. 
The IMF Bz was predominantly between 0 to +5nT. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days with AR1176 
having the potential for further M class events. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121111
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   20121111
      Canberra             1   11111000
      Hobart               2   11111001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3232 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     6    Quiet 
26 Mar     6    Quiet 
27 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours. Simillar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
26 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
27 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern 
AUS regions. Enhanced MUFs ~40% observed for IPS Cocos Is. station 
during local day and night and slightly enhanced MUFs for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Normal ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions was observed. Similar conditions expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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