[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 25 10:47:06 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1207UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low to Moderate over the last 24
hours with an M1.0 class event at 1207UT from AR1176 which also
produced numerous C and B class events over the UT day. AR1176
has decreased in area and experienced a slight increase in magnetic
complexity. The solar wind speed ranged between 440-480km/s during
the UT day with this decrease due to reduced coronal hole influence.
The IMF Bz was predominantly between 0 to +5nT. Solar activity
is expected to be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days with AR1176
having the potential for further M class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 20121111
Canberra 1 11111000
Hobart 2 11111001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3232 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 6 Quiet
26 Mar 6 Quiet
27 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Simillar conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern
AUS regions. Enhanced MUFs ~40% observed for IPS Cocos Is. station
during local day and night and slightly enhanced MUFs for Southern
AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Normal ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions was observed. Similar conditions expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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