[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 24 10:40:59 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0218UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Notable 
activity was an M1.4 class event at 0217UT from AR1176 along 
with C and B class activity over the UT day. No major change 
in size for the current regions on disk. The solar wind speed 
increased from 400km/s at 00UT to ~500km/s at the time of this 
report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the 
next two days due to coronal hole effects. The IMF Bz ranged 
between +/-5nT with only momentary southward excursions. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days with a chance 
of M class flares. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22322332
      Darwin               9   22222332
      Learmonth            9   31222332
      Canberra             8   22321231
      Hobart               8   22322231
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Darwin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3311 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
over the last 24 hours with isolated active periods for high 
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the 
next 2 days with Quiet conditions expected on 26Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : Began at 0035UT 22/03, Ended at 0345UT 22/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
26 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern 
AUS regions and slightly enhanced MUFs for Equatorial and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions expected for the next 
2-3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    46600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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