[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 23 10:34:18 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Notable 
activity was a C3.9 flare at 0337UT from AR1176 and a C2.5 class 
event at 1550UT from a yet to be determined region. Current regions 
on the disk remain quiet and stable. The solar wind speed between 
00UT-13UT was 320km/s after which it increased to 400km/s at 
the time of this report, due to coronal hole effects. The IMF 
was southward between 00UT-03UT at around -5nT and then remained 
between 0 and 6nT. Solar activity is likely to be Low over the next 
3 days with a slight chance of M class flares from returning region 
AR1164 which is expected to rotate on disc within the next 24 
hours. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1164 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 23 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222001
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           8   2321----
      Learmonth            4   22222001
      Canberra             3   12122001
      Hobart               3   12112001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1010 0113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar     7    Quiet 
24 Mar     7    Quiet 
25 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days with possible Unsettled periods for mid-high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 1955UT 21/03, Ended at 2325UT 21/03
 and, Began at 0035UT 22/03, Ended at 0345UT 22/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Mar    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      MUFs enahanced 20% during local evening.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
24 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Enhanced 
MUFs ~20% for Equatorial regions again. Poor ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions due to the recent proton event. Continued 
enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions expected for the next 
2-3 days with mostly normal HF conditions for mid latitudes. 
Improving HF conditions expected for Antarctic regions over the 
next 24 hours with return to near monthly normal values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    47900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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