[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 22 10:51:01 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             125/78             135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Notable 
activity was a long-duration C2.6 flare at 1147 UT and an associated 
increase in proton flux as observed by GOES satellite. This was 
probably from newly emerging AR1176 which was AR1165 on the previous 
rotation. Other regions on the disk were quiet and stable. The 
solar wind speed ranged between 300-380km/s over the UT day while 
IMF Bz was continuously southward from -2 to -7nT with brief 
northward excursions to 5nT. Solar activity is likely to increase 
over the next 3 days with the return of old region 1164. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1164 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 23 Mar. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 1165 is also due for return to the south-east 
limb around this day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21100212
      Darwin               5   22111212
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            3   21000212
      Canberra             3   21000212
      Hobart               3   21100212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar : 
      Darwin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0111 2202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar     6    Quiet 
23 Mar     5    Quiet 
24 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
3 days with possible Unsettled periods for mid-high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 03 2011 1955UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor          
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
23 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
24 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Enhanced 
MUFs ~20% for Equatorial regions. Poor ionospheric support for 
Antarctic regions due to current proton event. Continued enhanced 
conditions for Equatorial regions expected for the next 2-3 days 
with mostly normal HF conditions for mid latitudes. Poor HF conditions
expected for Antarctic regions for the next 24 hours with return 
to near monthly normal values on 23Mar-24Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    62600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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