[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 21 11:35:03 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT: * corrected version *
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours while 
the current regions on disc remain quiet and stable. The main 
active region is AR1175 which issued 2 B-class flares and is 
growing but of low magnetic complexity. The solar wind speed 
ranged between 340-400km/s over the UT day while IMF Bz was 
continuously weakly southward at approximately -4nT causing low 
level geomagnetic merging. Solar activity is expected to be Low 
for the next 24 hours. Solar activity is likely to increase with 
the return of regions 1165 and 1164 from 23-Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12113222
      Darwin               7   22113222
      Learmonth            6   11023222
      Canberra             4   01013212
      Hobart               6   02113222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1011 2201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar     5    Quiet 
22 Mar     5    Quiet 
23 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
over the last 24 hours with Active conditions for high latitudes 
due to southward IMF Bz. Quiet conditions are expected for the 
next 2 days with Unsettled conditions on day 3 due to the coronal 
hole east of AR1175. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar    55    0 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
22 Mar    50    0 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
23 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for mid-latitude 
regions except for an enhancement near local dusk over the last 
24 hours. Strongly enhanced conditions near equatorial regions. 
Enhanced MUFs over the next 2 days expected especially for Northern 
AUS and near equatorial regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    45400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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