[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 31 10:42:27 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: AR1183 (N15E27) and AR1176(S17w37) reduced in size with 
AR1183 producing a C1.9 flare at 2005UT. The IMF Bz was northward 
all day about +10nT.Vsw fluctuated between 340km/s and ~380km/s. 
An isolated M_class flare is possible over the forcast period. 
The CME observed on 25Mar is expected to arrive on day 1 causing 
disturbance to the solar wind parameters. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1169 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 31 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   43111001
      Darwin               7   33122112
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            8   52111000
      Canberra             4   -4110000
      Hobart               3   32111000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0001 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active conditions between 00 - 03UT before declining 
to quiet conditions. Isolated active conditions may occur, on 
days 1 and 2 due to the effects of the CME on the 25th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
  
  Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values from 00UT to 05UT and
      21UT.
      Enhanced by 50% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
   Near predicted to 25% enhanced.  
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted to enhanced about 50%. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted to 35% enhanced. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    60    Enhanced at times by up to 40%. 
01 Apr    50    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
02 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values to 50% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    33600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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