[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 31 10:42:27 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: AR1183 (N15E27) and AR1176(S17w37) reduced in size with
AR1183 producing a C1.9 flare at 2005UT. The IMF Bz was northward
all day about +10nT.Vsw fluctuated between 340km/s and ~380km/s.
An isolated M_class flare is possible over the forcast period.
The CME observed on 25Mar is expected to arrive on day 1 causing
disturbance to the solar wind parameters.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1169 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 31 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 43111001
Darwin 7 33122112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 8 52111000
Canberra 4 -4110000
Hobart 3 32111000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0001 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Active conditions between 00 - 03UT before declining
to quiet conditions. Isolated active conditions may occur, on
days 1 and 2 due to the effects of the CME on the 25th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values from 00UT to 05UT and
21UT.
Enhanced by 50% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted to 25% enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted to enhanced about 50%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted to 35% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 60 Enhanced at times by up to 40%.
01 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
02 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to 50% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 33600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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