[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 19 10:48:24 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B-class activity as the current regions on disc remain
quiet and stable. The solar wind speed ranged between 360-380km/s
over the UT day. IMF Bz was predominently northward, ranging
between -1nT and 5nT over the UT day. Possible increase in solar
wind speed due to minor coronal hole effects in the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 1 21100000
Canberra 0 10100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0100 0031
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 7 Quiet
20 Mar 5 Quiet
21 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 19Mar with possible
Unsettled periods due to minor coronal hole effects. Quiet
conditions expected for 20Mar-21Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for all regions
over the last 24 hours. Enhanced MUFs observed during local day
for Northern AUS/Equatorial and during local evenings for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions.
MUFs expected to be at monthly predicted values for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 85200 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list