[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 19 10:48:24 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
only minor B-class activity as the current regions on disc remain 
quiet and stable. The solar wind speed ranged between 360-380km/s 
over the UT day. IMF Bz was predominently northward, ranging 
between -1nT and 5nT over the UT day. Possible increase in solar 
wind speed due to minor coronal hole effects in the next 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100001
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            1   21100000
      Canberra             0   10100000
      Hobart               1   11100000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0100 0031     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar     7    Quiet 
20 Mar     5    Quiet 
21 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 19Mar with possible 
Unsettled periods due to minor coronal hole effects. Quiet 
conditions expected for 20Mar-21Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for all regions 
over the last 24 hours. Enhanced MUFs observed during local day 
for Northern AUS/Equatorial and during local evenings for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. 
MUFs expected to be at monthly predicted values for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    85200 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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