[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 20 10:47:39 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours while 
the current regions on disc remain quiet and stable. The solar 
wind speed ranged between 320km/s-380km/s over the UT day while 
IMF Bz ranged between +/-4nT without any sustained southward 
excursions. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the 
next 24 hours Possible increase in solar activity to Low levels 
with the return of regions 1165 and 1164 from 21Mar onwards. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12123101
      Darwin               5   22112212
      Townsville           8   22223---
      Learmonth            3   12013001
      Canberra             3   11123000
      Hobart               3   11123000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0010 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar     5    Quiet 
21 Mar     5    Quiet 
22 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions for high latitudes 
for the first half of the UT day and between 12UT-15UT for mid-to 
low latitudes. Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days 
with possible Unsettled periods for mid to high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
22 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for most 
regions over the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs of ~30% observed 
during local day and night for IPS Cocos Is. station. Notable 
sporadic E observed 09-13UT for Equatorial regions. Enhanced 
MUFs of 15% during local night for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. 
MUFs expected to be at monthly predicted values for the next 
3 days with possible MUF enhancements of ~15% during local night 
for mid to low latitudes 20Mar-21Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list