[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 18 10:31:45 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: AR1169 will rotate off the disc early in the UT day
and has only issued one B class flare in the last 24 hours. Newly
emerged AR1173 and AR1174 are both small and magnetically simple,
not likely to produce major flares at present.The solar wind
speed remained at average ~340-440 km/s. A northern coronal hole
should take effect in ~1 days but it is quite narrow in longitude
so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day. IMF Bz was
mostly northwards for UT day, except for a moderate (-8nT) southward
turning at 17UT for ~90 mins, causing merging with the geomagnetic
field. The IMF Bz has returned to strongly northward, shutting
off geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 12101121
Darwin 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 12101120
Canberra 1 12000010
Hobart 2 12100010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 5 Quiet
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid and low latitudes
as the solar wind remained near average ~340-440 km/s levels.
At polar latitudes IMF Bz northwards kept activity down to
Quiet-Unsettled, except for a moderate (-8nT) southward turning at
17UT for ~90 mins causing storm conditions near the auroral oval for 3-4 hours.
A northern coronal hole should take effect in ~1 day but it is
quite narrow in longitude so the enhanced Vsw will be brief,
less than 1 day, with conditions probably Unsettled.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
19 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions were near or slightly above monthly medians
at mid and low latitudes with enhancement at some near equatorial
sites. Normal conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 30100 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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