[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 18 10:31:45 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: AR1169 will rotate off the disc early in the UT day 
and has only issued one B class flare in the last 24 hours. Newly 
emerged AR1173 and AR1174 are both small and magnetically simple, 
not likely to produce major flares at present.The solar wind 
speed remained at average ~340-440 km/s. A northern coronal hole 
should take effect in ~1 days but it is quite narrow in longitude 
so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day. IMF Bz was 
mostly northwards for UT day, except for a moderate (-8nT) southward 
turning at 17UT for ~90 mins, causing merging with the geomagnetic 
field. The IMF Bz has returned to strongly northward, shutting 
off geomagnetic merging. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12101121
      Darwin               5   22211122
      Learmonth            3   12101120
      Canberra             1   12000010
      Hobart               2   12100010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              0   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar     5    Quiet 
19 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Mar     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid and low latitudes 
as the solar wind remained near average ~340-440 km/s levels. 
At polar latitudes IMF Bz northwards kept activity down to
Quiet-Unsettled, except for a moderate (-8nT) southward turning at 
17UT for ~90 mins causing storm conditions near the auroral oval for 3-4 hours. 
A northern coronal hole should take effect in ~1 day but it is 
quite narrow in longitude so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, 
less than 1 day, with conditions probably Unsettled. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar    45    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
19 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions were near or slightly above monthly medians 
at mid and low latitudes with enhancement at some near equatorial 
sites. Normal conditions are expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    30100 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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