[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 17 10:43:53 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              80/20
COMMENT: X-ray flare activity has been provided by AR1169 with 
several class B and C class flares. AR1169 is decaying but has 
a <10% probability of emitting an M class and 2% chance of emitting 
an X class flare, with small possibility of a proton event, before 
it rotates of the disc in ~2 days time. There was a long duration 
C3 flare in progress late in the UT day associated with a limb 
CME. AR1172 on the eastern side is small, quiet and stable at 
present and newly emerged AR1173 in the south-east is a small 
bi-polar group which has low flare potential at present. The 
solar wind speed remained at average ~350 km/s. A northern coronal 
hole should take effect in ~2 days but it is quite narrow in 
longitude so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day. 
IMF Bz was unusually northwards for the second UT day in a row, 
shutting down merging with the geomagnetic field. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10100001
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Learmonth            1   10100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   10100000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin             111   (Major storm)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar     6    Quiet 
18 Mar     5    Quiet 
19 Mar     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid and low latitudes 
as the solar wind remained near average ~350 km/s levels. At 
polar latitudes IMF Bz northwards kept activity down to
Quiet-Unsettled. 
A northern coronal hole should take effect in ~2-3 days but it 
is quite narrow in longitude so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, 
less than 1 day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    48    0 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions were near or slightly above montlhy medians 
at mid and low latitudes with enhancement at some near equatorial 
sites. Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days. SWFs are possible over the next day before AR1169 
rotates off the disc as it has a 10% chance of emitting M class 
flares and 2% chance of emitting X class flares. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    71700 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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