[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 17 10:43:53 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: X-ray flare activity has been provided by AR1169 with
several class B and C class flares. AR1169 is decaying but has
a <10% probability of emitting an M class and 2% chance of emitting
an X class flare, with small possibility of a proton event, before
it rotates of the disc in ~2 days time. There was a long duration
C3 flare in progress late in the UT day associated with a limb
CME. AR1172 on the eastern side is small, quiet and stable at
present and newly emerged AR1173 in the south-east is a small
bi-polar group which has low flare potential at present. The
solar wind speed remained at average ~350 km/s. A northern coronal
hole should take effect in ~2 days but it is quite narrow in
longitude so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day.
IMF Bz was unusually northwards for the second UT day in a row,
shutting down merging with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 10100001
Darwin 4 21111112
Learmonth 1 10100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 111 (Major storm)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 6 Quiet
18 Mar 5 Quiet
19 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid and low latitudes
as the solar wind remained near average ~350 km/s levels. At
polar latitudes IMF Bz northwards kept activity down to
Quiet-Unsettled.
A northern coronal hole should take effect in ~2-3 days but it
is quite narrow in longitude so the enhanced Vsw will be brief,
less than 1 day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 48 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
18 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions were near or slightly above montlhy medians
at mid and low latitudes with enhancement at some near equatorial
sites. Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the
next 3 days. SWFs are possible over the next day before AR1169
rotates off the disc as it has a 10% chance of emitting M class
flares and 2% chance of emitting X class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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