[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 16 10:33:08 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: AR1166 is rotating off the disc early on 16th March
UT but has a low (~5%) chance of emitting an M class flare before
it does. Most x-ray flare activity has been provided by AR1169
with one M1 class and several B and C class flares. AR1169 is
decaying but has a ~40% probability of emitting an M class and
<10% chance of emitting an X class flare with the possibility
of a proton event, before it rotates of the disc in ~3 days time.
AR1172 on the eastern side is small, quiet and stable at present.
The solar wind speed reduced to average ~350 km/s levels as the
coronal hole extending up from the southern solar pole rotates
out of geoeffective position. A northern hole should take effect
in ~3 days but it is quite narrow in longitude so the enhanced
Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day. IMF Bz was unusually northwards
for the entire UT day, shutting down merging with the geomagnetic
field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Darwin 3 21111111
Learmonth 0 --000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1110 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 6 Quiet
17 Mar 6 Quiet
18 Mar 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid and low latitudes
as the solar wind reduced to average ~350 km/s levels as the
coronal hole extending up from the southern solar pole rotates
out of geoeffective position. At polar latitudes IMF Bz northwards
kept activity down to Quiet-Unsettled execpt for an Active period
of the coronal hole wind stream. A northern coronal hole should
take effect in ~3-4 days but it is quite narrow in longitude
so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 45 0 to 5% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions were generally enhanced at near equatorial
and northern Australian region, possibily due to the moderately
enhanced geomagnetic activity over the last couple of days. Mostly
normal to good conditions are expected for the next 3 days. SWFs
are possible over the next 2 days before AR1169 rotates off the
disc as it has a 40% chance of emitting M class flares and <10%
chance of emitting X class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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