[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 16 10:33:08 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: AR1166 is rotating off the disc early on 16th March 
UT but has a low (~5%) chance of emitting an M class flare before 
it does. Most x-ray flare activity has been provided by AR1169 
with one M1 class and several B and C class flares. AR1169 is 
decaying but has a ~40% probability of emitting an M class and 
<10% chance of emitting an X class flare with the possibility 
of a proton event, before it rotates of the disc in ~3 days time. 
AR1172 on the eastern side is small, quiet and stable at present. 
The solar wind speed reduced to average ~350 km/s levels as the 
coronal hole extending up from the southern solar pole rotates 
out of geoeffective position. A northern hole should take effect 
in ~3 days but it is quite narrow in longitude so the enhanced 
Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day. IMF Bz was unusually northwards 
for the entire UT day, shutting down merging with the geomagnetic 
field. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Learmonth            0   --000000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               0   11000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1110 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     6    Quiet 
17 Mar     6    Quiet 
18 Mar     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid and low latitudes 
as the solar wind reduced to average ~350 km/s levels as the 
coronal hole extending up from the southern solar pole rotates 
out of geoeffective position. At polar latitudes IMF Bz northwards 
kept activity down to Quiet-Unsettled execpt for an Active period 
of the coronal hole wind stream. A northern coronal hole should 
take effect in ~3-4 days but it is quite narrow in longitude 
so the enhanced Vsw will be brief, less than 1 day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    45    0 to 5% above predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions were generally enhanced at near equatorial 
and northern Australian region, possibily due to the moderately 
enhanced geomagnetic activity over the last couple of days. Mostly 
normal to good conditions are expected for the next 3 days. SWFs 
are possible over the next 2 days before AR1169 rotates off the 
disc as it has a 40% chance of emitting M class flares and <10% 
chance of emitting X class flares. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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