[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 15 10:49:51 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.2 1952UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: An M4/1N-flare was observed from region 1169 at 1952UT
on 14 March. Further M-class flare activity is possible over
the next few days. Solar wind speeds remained elevated during
the past 24 hours under the influence of a coronal hole wind
stream, reaching approximately ~650 km/s. The IMF Bz was predominantly
northward over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected
to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 22211001
Darwin 5 22221112
Learmonth 4 22221002
Canberra 1 12100000
Hobart 3 23200000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 63 (Active)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1002 1331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar 6 Quiet
17 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled for 15 March under the influence of a coronal hole
solar wind stream and mostly quiet for 16-17 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the
next few days. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
16 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
17 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the
next few days. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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