[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 15 10:49:51 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.2    1952UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: An M4/1N-flare was observed from region 1169 at 1952UT 
on 14 March. Further M-class flare activity is possible over 
the next few days. Solar wind speeds remained elevated during 
the past 24 hours under the influence of a coronal hole wind 
stream, reaching approximately ~650 km/s. The IMF Bz was predominantly
northward over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22211001
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Learmonth            4   22221002
      Canberra             1   12100000
      Hobart               3   23200000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            63   (Active)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1002 1331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Mar     6    Quiet 
17 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled for 15 March under the influence of a coronal hole 
solar wind stream and mostly quiet for 16-17 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the 
next few days. SWFs are possible over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
16 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
17 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the 
next few days. SWFs are possible over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 558 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   173000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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