[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 14 10:53:39 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: AR1166 is still the main region producing x-ray flares 
and radio bursts but the x-ray flares are only B and C class 
at present. Further M-class flare activity is possible over the 
next two days until AR1166 rotates off the disc. Solar wind speeds 
remained elevated ~550 km/s due to the presence of a coronal 
hole wind stream. The IMF Bz only showed a brief southward excursion 
and was not very geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to remain elevated for the next 24-36 hours. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21122332
      Darwin               8   22122332
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            8   21122332
      Canberra             5   10122321
      Hobart               7   11123321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   5222 2133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    12    Unsettled 
15 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled 
over the day under the influence of a coronal hole solar wind 
stream and Quiet to Unsettled the day after. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 65% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10% 
15 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
16 Mar    47    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mid-latitudes were near median conditions and will remain 
at or slightly below, due to geomagnetic activity, for the next 
1-2 days. Low latitudes were stongly enhanced especially in the 
daytime. Only one solar active region has a small likelihood 
of emitting M/X class flares for a short wave fadeout. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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