[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 14 10:53:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: AR1166 is still the main region producing x-ray flares
and radio bursts but the x-ray flares are only B and C class
at present. Further M-class flare activity is possible over the
next two days until AR1166 rotates off the disc. Solar wind speeds
remained elevated ~550 km/s due to the presence of a coronal
hole wind stream. The IMF Bz only showed a brief southward excursion
and was not very geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are expected
to remain elevated for the next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 21122332
Darwin 8 22122332
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 8 21122332
Canberra 5 10122321
Hobart 7 11123321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 5222 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
15 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled
over the day under the influence of a coronal hole solar wind
stream and Quiet to Unsettled the day after.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
15 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 47 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mid-latitudes were near median conditions and will remain
at or slightly below, due to geomagnetic activity, for the next
1-2 days. Low latitudes were stongly enhanced especially in the
daytime. Only one solar active region has a small likelihood
of emitting M/X class flares for a short wave fadeout.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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