[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 13 10:54:58 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0443UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: A weak type II sweep was observed in association with 
the M1-flare from region 1166. There does not appear to be any 
CME directly associated with this flare, although some weak CME 
activity was observed within the few hours preceding this flare, 
possibly from behind the east limb. Further M-class flare activity 
is possible over the next few days. Solar wind speeds have increased 
during the past 24 hours due to the presence of a coronal hole 
wind stream and are presently around 550 km/s. The IMF has been 
predominantly ranging between +-5 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to remain mildly elevated for the next 24-48 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32212122
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Townsville          10   3321----
      Learmonth            8   32212123
      Canberra             7   32212122
      Hobart               8   33222122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             40   4542 2566     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    12    Mostly unsettled with the small chance of active 
                to minor storm periods at high latitudes. 
14 Mar    12    Mostly unsettled with the small chance of active 
                to minor storm periods at high latitudes. 
15 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled over the next few days under the influence of a 
coronal hole solar wind stream. Active to minor storm periods 
are possible at times at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded conditions were observed at mid-high 
latitudes during 12 March, particularly during the early part 
of the UT day. Slightly degraded conditions are expected at times 
for 13 March, returning to mostly normal to good conditions for 
14-15 March. SWFs are possible for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar    35    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 12 March 
and is current for interval 12-13 March (SWFs) . Moderately degraded 
conditions were observed at mid-high latitudes during 12 March, 
particularly during the early part of the UT day. Slightly degraded 
conditions are expected at times for 13 March, returning to mostly 
normal to good conditions for 14-15 March. SWFs are possible 
for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    91300 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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