[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 12 10:53:18 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: No significant flares were observed during 11 March, 
however further M-class flare activity is possible over the next 
few days from regions 1166 and 1169. Solar wind speeds were
predominantly below 450 km/s during the past 24 hours.
The IMF remained predominantly southward reaching values slightly
less than -10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly
elevated for the next few days as a coronal hole rotates into
a geoffective position and the effects from recent CME activity abates. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   33232444
      Darwin              15   22232444
      Townsville          18   33332444
      Learmonth           21   33242544
      Canberra            11   22232333
      Hobart              18   33342443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20   2244 3245     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    15    Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
                possible at high latitudes. 
13 Mar    15    Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
                possible at high latitudes. 
14 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active levels were observed for 
the Australian region over the past 24 hours with minor to major 
storm levels observed at southern hemisphere high latitude stations. 
Mostly unsettled to active periods are expected for the Australian 
region for the next few days as a coronal hole rotates into a 
geoeffective position and the effects of recent CME activity 
abate. Minor storm periods are possible at times at high latitudes 
during the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Poor-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0115UT 08/03, Ended at 0235UT 10/03
 and, Began at 0645UT 10/03, Ended at 1235UT 10/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed at mid-high 
latitudes during 11 March, particularly during the early part 
of the UT day. Mildly degraded conditions are are expected at 
times for 12 March, returning to mostly normal to good conditions 
for 13-14 March. SWFs are possible for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    30    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed at mid-high 
latitudes during 11 March, particularly during the early part 
of the UT day. Mildly degraded conditions are are expected at 
times for 12 March, returning to mostly normal to good conditions 
for 13-14 March. SWFs are possible for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    44900 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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