[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 11 10:53:06 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.6 09/2323UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M1.1    2241UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: At the time of report an M1-flare was observed at 2241UT
on 10 March. Further M-class flare activity is possible over the 
next 24 hours. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 
approximately 06UT on 10 March, most likely due to the glancing 
impact of CME activity of 7 March. Solar wind speeds are presently 
below 400 km/s. Isolated active periods are possible at times 
over the next 24 hours. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
10/0615UT.


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   22444333
      Darwin              12   22334223
      Learmonth           16   22434243
      Canberra            16   11444333
      Hobart              20   11544343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2111 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar    15    Unsettled to active 
12 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
13 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : Began at 0115UT 08/03, Ended at 0235UT 10/03
 and, Began at 0645UT 10/03, Ended at 1235UT 10/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to degraded due
      absorption.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced. 
COMMENT: Degraded conditions were observed at times at high latitudes 
during 10 March due to a Polar Cap Absorption event. Degraded 
conditions have been observed since local dawn for mid-high latitudes 
most likely the result of the mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Degraded conditions are expected at times for 11 March for mid-high
latitudes, returning to mostly normal to good conditions for 12-13 March.
SWFs possible for 11 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 311 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    14200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list